2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi
2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi Turnout 60.4%
County Results
Precinct Results
Trump
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
Biden
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
90–100%
Tie/No Data
The 2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party 's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump , and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden , and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris . Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Trump scored a convincing victory in Mississippi, a socially conservative Bible Belt state. Biden's main support was in the western Delta counties next to the Mississippi River , and in Hinds County , home to the state capital and largest city of Jackson . In contrast, Trump's margins came from the regions bordering the Gulf Coast , the northeast Appalachian area, and the Jackson and Memphis suburbs. Trump's strength also came from winning 81% of the White vote, which constituted 69% of the electorate.
As is the case in many Southern states , there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississippi voters supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippi voters supported Biden.[3]
57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and they backed the president 82%-17%. Trump also received 89% of the white Evangelical vote, which made up 54% of the electorate.[4] Biden flipped Warren County , with 49.6% of the vote to Trump's 49.2%.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.
Republican primary
Incumbent President Donald Trump was challenged by two candidates: businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente of California , and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts .[5]
Democratic primary
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii , Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared candidates still active in the race.[7]
General election
Predictions
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report [10]
Safe R
September 10, 2020
Inside Elections [11]
Safe R
September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12]
Safe R
July 14, 2020
Politico [13]
Safe R
September 8, 2020
RCP [14]
Likely R
August 3, 2020
Niskanen [15]
Safe R
July 26, 2020
CNN [16]
Safe R
August 3, 2020
The Economist [17]
Likely R
September 2, 2020
CBS News [18]
Likely R
August 16, 2020
270towin [19]
Safe R
August 2, 2020
ABC News [20]
Safe R
July 31, 2020
NPR [21]
Likely R
August 3, 2020
NBC News [22]
Safe R
August 6, 2020
538 [23]
Likely R
November 2, 2020
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Polls
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian
Howie Hawkins Green
Other
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020
1,461 (LV)
± 4%
61% [c]
37%
-
-
–
–
Data For Progress
Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020
562 (LV)
± 4.1%
55%
41%
2%
1%
1%[d]
–
Civiqs/Daily Kos
Oct 23–26, 2020
507 (LV)
± 5.3%
55%
41%
-
-
3%[e]
1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Oct 1–28, 2020
2,116 (LV)
–
62%
37%
-
-
–
–
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Sep 1–30, 2020
782 (LV)
–
55%
44%
-
-
–
1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Aug 1–31, 2020
607 (LV)
–
61%
36%
-
-
–
3%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance [A]
Aug 28–30, 2020
600 (LV)
± 4%
50%
40%
No voters
-
No voters[f]
6%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike Espy [B]
Jul 30 – Aug 9, 2020
600 (LV)
± 4.1%
53% [g]
43%
-
-
–
–
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Jul 1–31, 2020
733 (LV)
–
59%
39%
-
-
–
2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
Jun 8–30, 2020
425 (LV)
–
63%
35%
-
-
–
2%
Chism Strategies (D)
Jun 2–4, 2020
568 (LV)
± 4.1%
50%
41%
-
-
6%[h]
3%
Chism Strategies/Millsaps College
Apr 8–9, 2020
508 (RV)
± 4.4%
49%
38%
-
-
7%
7%
Mason-Dixon
Feb 26–28, 2020
625 (RV)
± 4.0%
56%
41%
-
-
–
3%
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[b]
Marginof error
Donald Trump (R)
Bernie Sanders (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon
Feb 26–28, 2020
625 (RV)
± 4.0%
59%
36%
5%
Results
By county
County
Donald Trump Republican
Joe Biden Democratic
Various candidates Other parties
Margin
Total
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Adams
5,696
41.40%
7,917
57.54%
146
1.06%
-2,221
-16.14%
13,759
Alcorn
12,818
81.16%
2,782
17.62%
193
1.22%
10,036
63.54%
15,793
Amite
4,503
62.58%
2,620
36.41%
73
1.01%
1,863
26.17%
7,196
Attala
5,178
58.69%
3,542
40.15%
103
1.16%
1,636
18.54%
8,823
Benton
2,570
59.92%
1,679
39.15%
40
0.93%
891
20.77%
4,289
Bolivar
4,671
33.99%
8,904
64.78%
169
1.23%
-4,233
-30.79%
13,744
Calhoun
4,625
70.18%
1,902
28.86%
63
0.96%
2,723
41.32%
6,590
Carroll
3,924
68.83%
1,729
30.33%
48
0.84%
2,195
38.50%
5,701
Chickasaw
4,175
51.28%
3,810
46.80%
156
1.92%
365
4.48%
8,141
Choctaw
3,001
71.06%
1,185
28.06%
37
0.88%
1,816
43.00%
4,223
Claiborne
603
13.55%
3,772
84.78%
74
1.67%
-3,169
-71.23%
4,449
Clarke
5,417
64.97%
2,838
34.04%
83
0.99%
2,579
30.93%
8,338
Clay
4,181
41.03%
5,844
57.36%
164
1.61%
-1,663
-16.33%
10,189
Coahoma
2,375
27.94%
6,020
70.82%
106
1.24%
-3,645
-42.88%
8,501
Copiah
6,250
48.51%
6,470
50.22%
163
1.27%
-220
-1.71%
12,883
Covington
5,854
62.54%
3,416
36.50%
90
0.96%
2,438
26.04%
9,360
DeSoto
46,462
61.03%
28,265
37.13%
1,397
1.84%
18,197
23.90%
76,124
Forrest
17,290
54.62%
13,755
43.45%
609
1.93%
3,535
11.17%
31,654
Franklin
2,923
65.52%
1,480
33.18%
58
1.30%
1,443
32.34%
4,461
George
9,713
87.91%
1,218
11.02%
118
1.07%
8,495
76.89%
11,049
Greene
4,794
82.48%
966
16.62%
52
0.90%
3,828
65.86%
5,812
Grenada
6,081
55.73%
4,734
43.39%
96
0.88%
1,347
12.34%
10,911
Hancock
16,132
76.98%
4,504
21.49%
321
1.53%
11,628
55.49%
20,957
Harrison
46,822
61.70%
27,728
36.54%
1,335
1.76%
19,094
25.16%
75,885
Hinds
25,141
25.09%
73,550
73.40%
1,517
1.51%
-48,409
-48.31%
100,208
Holmes
1,369
16.87%
6,588
81.18%
158
1.95%
-5,219
-64.31%
8,115
Humphreys
1,118
26.69%
3,016
72.00%
55
1.31%
-1,898
-45.31%
4,189
Issaquena
308
45.56%
355
52.51%
13
1.93%
-47
-6.95%
676
Itawamba
9,438
87.24%
1,249
11.54%
132
1.22%
8,189
75.70%
10,819
Jackson
36,295
66.54%
17,375
31.86%
873
1.60%
18,920
34.68%
54,543
Jasper
4,302
49.24%
4,341
49.69%
93
1.07%
-39
-0.45%
8,736
Jefferson
531
13.59%
3,327
85.13%
50
1.28%
-2,796
-71.54%
3,908
Jefferson Davis
2,534
40.79%
3,599
57.93%
80
1.28%
-1,065
-17.14%
6,213
Jones
21,226
70.54%
8,517
28.30%
348
1.16%
12,709
42.24%
30,091
Kemper
1,787
37.77%
2,887
61.02%
57
1.21%
-1,100
-23.25%
4,731
Lafayette
12,949
55.28%
10,070
42.99%
404
1.73%
2,879
12.29%
23,423
Lamar
20,704
72.57%
7,340
25.73%
486
1.70%
13,364
46.84%
28,530
Lauderdale
17,967
57.50%
12,960
41.48%
320
1.02%
5,007
16.02%
31,247
Lawrence
4,285
64.80%
2,260
34.18%
68
1.02%
2,025
30.62%
6,613
Leake
5,228
56.83%
3,897
42.36%
75
0.81%
1,331
14.47%
9,200
Lee
24,207
65.51%
12,189
32.98%
558
1.51%
12,018
32.53%
36,954
Leflore
3,129
28.72%
7,648
70.21%
116
1.07%
-4,519
-41.49%
10,893
Lincoln
11,596
69.02%
5,040
30.00%
165
0.98%
6,556
39.02%
16,801
Lowndes
13,800
50.66%
13,087
48.04%
354
1.30%
713
2.62%
27,241
Madison
31,091
55.16%
24,440
43.36%
830
1.48%
6,651
11.80%
56,361
Marion
8,273
67.94%
3,787
31.10%
117
0.96%
4,486
36.84%
12,177
Marshall
7,566
47.83%
8,057
50.94%
194
1.23%
-491
-3.11%
15,817
Monroe
11,177
64.76%
5,874
34.03%
208
1.21%
5,303
30.73%
17,259
Montgomery
2,917
57.48%
2,121
41.79%
37
0.73%
796
15.69%
5,075
Neshoba
8,320
71.09%
3,260
27.86%
123
1.05%
5,060
43.23%
11,703
Newton
6,997
68.71%
3,075
30.20%
111
1.09%
3,922
38.51%
10,183
Noxubee
1,240
23.23%
4,040
75.67%
59
1.10%
-2,800
-52.44%
5,339
Oktibbeha
9,004
45.57%
10,299
52.13%
454
2.30%
-1,295
-6.56%
19,757
Panola
8,060
51.58%
7,403
47.37%
164
1.05%
657
4.21%
15,627
Pearl River
19,595
81.53%
4,148
17.26%
290
1.21%
15,447
64.27%
24,033
Perry
4,500
76.06%
1,362
23.02%
54
0.92%
3,138
53.04%
5,916
Pike
8,479
48.84%
8,646
49.80%
236
1.36%
-167
-0.96%
17,361
Pontotoc
11,550
80.43%
2,614
18.20%
197
1.37%
8,936
62.23%
14,361
Prentiss
8,370
78.64%
2,153
20.23%
121
1.13%
6,217
58.41%
10,644
Quitman
1,026
31.80%
2,150
66.65%
50
1.55%
-1,124
-34.85%
3,226
Rankin
50,895
71.89%
18,847
26.62%
1,057
1.49%
32,048
45.27%
70,799
Scott
6,285
58.56%
4,330
40.34%
118
1.10%
1,955
18.22%
10,733
Sharkey
688
31.52%
1,465
67.11%
30
1.37%
-777
-35.59%
2,183
Simpson
7,635
64.62%
4,037
34.17%
143
1.21%
3,598
30.45%
11,815
Smith
6,458
77.55%
1,791
21.51%
78
0.94%
4,667
56.04%
8,327
Stone
5,964
75.70%
1,802
22.87%
112
1.43%
4,162
52.83%
7,878
Sunflower
2,799
28.91%
6,781
70.04%
101
1.05%
-3,982
-41.13%
9,681
Tallahatchie
2,488
43.76%
3,105
54.62%
92
1.62%
-617
-10.86%
5,685
Tate
8,707
66.50%
4,183
31.95%
203
1.55%
4,524
34.55%
13,093
Tippah
8,054
79.73%
1,937
19.17%
111
1.10%
6,117
60.56%
10,102
Tishomingo
7,933
86.81%
1,059
11.59%
146
1.60%
6,874
75.22%
9,138
Tunica
926
25.97%
2,580
72.37%
59
1.66%
-1,654
-46.40%
3,565
Union
10,373
81.79%
2,160
17.03%
150
1.18%
8,213
64.76%
12,683
Walthall
4,220
59.28%
2,835
39.82%
64
0.90%
1,385
19.46%
7,119
Warren
10,365
49.23%
10,442
49.60%
246
1.17%
-77
-0.37%
21,053
Washington
5,300
29.39%
12,503
69.33%
231
1.28%
-7,203
-39.94%
18,034
Wayne
6,307
62.72%
3,624
36.04%
125
1.24%
2,683
26.68%
10,056
Webster
4,291
79.54%
1,043
19.33%
61
1.13%
3,248
60.21%
5,395
Wilkinson
1,324
32.08%
2,749
66.61%
56
1.31%
-1,425
-34.53%
4,127
Winston
5,112
55.35%
4,040
43.74%
84
0.91%
1,072
11.61%
9,236
Yalobusha
3,671
56.17%
2,785
42.62%
79
1.21%
886
13.55%
6,535
Yazoo
4,832
46.30%
5,496
52.66%
108
1.04%
-664
-6.36%
10,436
Totals
756,764
57.57%
539,398
41.04%
18,313
1.39%
217,366
16.53%
1,211,088
Swing by county
Democratic — +10-12.5%
Democratic — +7.5-10%
Democratic — +5-7.5%
Democratic — +2.5-5%
Democratic — +0-2.5%
Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
Trend relative to the state by county
Democratic — +10-12.5%
Democratic — +7.5-10%
Democratic — +5-7.5%
Democratic — +2.5-5%
Democratic — +0-2.5%
Republican — +0-2.5%
Republican — +2.5-5%
Republican — +5-7.5%
County flips
Democratic
Hold
Gain from Republican
Republican
Hold
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.
Analysis
Mississippi, a conservative state in the Deep South and greater Bible Belt , has not been won by a Democrat since the 1976 victory of fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter . Trump comfortably carried the state on election day by a 16.54% margin.
Despite Biden's loss statewide, he did manage to flip Warren County , home to Vicksburg , which had voted Democratic in 2012 but flipped back to the GOP column in 2016. In other elections, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith defeated Democrat Mike Espy by almost 10 points in the simultaneous senatorial race . Although Hyde-Smith underperformed Trump, she still won by a somewhat comfortable margin.
In referendums, a statewide referendum to approve a new flag after their controversial previous one , which contained the Confederate battle ensign , was rejected. The new alternative passed with over 71% of the vote. Medical marijuana was approved in the state with more than 61% of voters supporting the legalization. The less restrictive of the medical marijuana bills, Initiative 65, passed with over 57% selecting the less restrictive of two options to legalize medical marijuana. The state also voted to get rid of the electoral college system that had been in place to elect statewide officials. Over 74% of Mississippians voted to remove the provision that a candidate must receive the support of a majority of Mississippi Legislature House districts.
This is the fourth consecutive election in which Mississippi voted more Democratic than each of its neighboring states, due to African Americans comprising 37.94% of its population. Per exit polls by the Associated Press , Trump's strength in Mississippi came from White born-again /Evangelical Christians , of whom 89% supported Trump. 59% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump 83%–16%. As is the case in many Southern states , there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of White Mississippians supported Trump, while 93% of Black Mississippians supported Biden.[3]
See also
Notes
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ a b Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 3%
^ "Refused" with no voters
^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
^ "Someone else" with 6%
Partisan clients
^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
^ Poll sponsored by Espy's campaign
References
^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019 .
^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes" . National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019 .
^ a b "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted" . The New York Times . November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331 . Retrieved November 9, 2020 .
^ "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted" . The New York Times . November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331 . Retrieved January 27, 2021 .
^ Harrison, Bobby (February 27, 2020). "Who's on the ballot for Mississippi's March 10 primary?" . Mississippi Today. Retrieved March 10, 2020 .
^ "2020 Candidate Qualifying List" (PDF) . Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved March 10, 2020 .
^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass" . The New York Times . Retrieved February 10, 2019 .
^ "2020 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY" . Mississippi Secretary of State . Archived from the original on April 18, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020 .
^ "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker" . Associated Press . Retrieved November 23, 2022 .
^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF) . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved May 21, 2019 .
^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections" . insideelections.com . Retrieved May 21, 2019 .
^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President" . crystalball.centerforpolitics.org . Retrieved May 21, 2019 .
^ "2020 Election Forecast" . Politico . November 19, 2019.
^ "Battle for White House" . RCP . April 19, 2019.
^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center , March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020" . CNN . Retrieved June 16, 2020 .
^ "Forecasting the US elections" . The Economist . Retrieved July 7, 2020 .
^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker" . CBS News . July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020 .
^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map" . 270 to Win .
^ "ABC News Race Ratings" . CBS News . July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020 .
^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes" . NPR.org . Retrieved August 3, 2020 .
^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten" . NBC News . August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020 .
^ "2020 Election Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020 .
^ "2020 General Election" . Mississippi Secretary of State . Archived from the original on December 14, 2020. Retrieved December 5, 2020 .
Further reading
External links
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