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Automobiles

A small number of commercially available hydrogen fuel cell cars currently exist, most notably the Hyundai NEXO and Toyota Mirai.

Hydrogen combustion cars are not commercially available. With the rapid rise of electric vehicles and associated battery technology and infrastructure, the global scope for hydrogen’s role in cars is shrinking relative to earlier expectations, with suitability focused on other transport applications and specific geographies.^[1][2]

By the end of 2022, 70,200 fuel cell electric vehicles had been sold worldwide, compared with 26 million plug-in electric vehicles^[3]. This is increasingly reflected in carmakers’ research and development priorities^[4][5].

Trams and trains

In the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions Scenario, hydrogen accounts for 2% of rail energy demand in 2050, against a backdrop of 90% or rail travel being electrified by then (up from 45% today). This 2% however, is of a significantly higher energy demand in rail travel, under the assumption that there is a significant modal shift from passenger and freight aviation to rail. Hydrogen’s role in rail would likely be focused on lines that prove difficult or costly to electrify^[6].

Heavy trucks

The International Energy Agency’s NZE Scenario sees hydrogen meeting approximately 30% of heavy truck energy demand in 2050, mainly for long-distance heavy freight (with battery electric power accounting for around 60%).

Infrastructure

To enable the delivery of hydrogen fuel to transport end-users, a broad range of investments are needed, including the “construction and operation of new port infrastructure, buffer storage, pipelines, ships, refuelling stations and plants to convert the hydrogen into a more readily transportable commodity (and potentially back to hydrogen)”, such as ammonia.^[7]

Specifically, against the backdrop of a small role envisaged for hydrogen in fuelling light duty and passenger vehicles, the International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasises the need for the development of hydrogen refuelling stations in locations that are suitable for long‐distance trucking such as industrial hubs. In aviation, it identifies the need for investment in airport infrastructure for the storage and delivery of hydrogen. The IEA deems the infrastructure requirements for hydrogen in shipping more challenging, drawing attention to the “need for major investments and co‐ordinated efforts among fuel suppliers, ports, shipbuilders and shippers”^[8].

Criticism

Also in 2022, Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute concluded that hydrogen was unlikely to play a major role in road transport^[9]. By 2023, BP did not foresee any hydrogen being used in light vehicles to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050^[10].

All-electric vehicles

In the light road vehicle segment, by the end of 2022, 70,200 fuel cell electric vehicles had been sold worldwide^[11], compared with 26 million plug-in electric vehicles^[12].