Retirement slump

Retirement slump refers to the average falloff in the party's vote when the incumbent retires. A positive value of the sophomore surge represents an incumbency advantage. The retirement slump should be positive for an incumbency advantage to exist.[1]

Sophomore surge is the average vote gain for freshman winners in election 1 who run again in election 2. Retirement slump is the average vote loss for the parties whose candidates won election 1 and did not run in election 2.[2]

When a Sophomore surge and a Retirement slump combine, it is what is called a slurge.

References

  1. ^ Uppal, Yogesh (November 15, 2005). "Estimation of the Incumbency Effects in the US State Legislatures: A Quasi-Experimental approach" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on March 29, 2023 – via MPRA.
  2. ^ Gelman, Andrew; King, Gary (1990). "Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias" (PDF). American Journal of Political Science. 34 (4): 1142–1164. doi:10.2307/2111475. ISSN 0092-5853. JSTOR 2111475.
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