Various observers have predicted the end of Wikipedia since it rose to prominence, with potential pitfalls from lack of quality-control or inconsistencies among contributors.
Alternative online encyclopedias have been proposed as replacements for Wikipedia, including WolframAlpha,[1] as well as the both now-defunct Knol (from Google)[2][3] and Owl (from AOL).[4] A 2013 review raised alarms regarding Wikipedia's shortcomings on hoaxes, on vandalism, an imbalance of material, and inadequate quality control of articles.[5] Earlier critiques lamented the vulgar content and absence of sufficient references in articles.[6] Others suggest that the unwarranted deletion of useful articles from Wikipedia may portend its end, which itself inspired the creation of Deletionpedia.[7][8]
Contrary to such predictions, Wikipedia has constantly grown in both size and influence.[9][10][11][12] Recent developments with artificial intelligence in Wikimedia projects have prompted new predictions that AI applications which consume free and open content will replace Wikipedia.[13]
Personnel
Wikipedia is crowdsourced by a few million volunteer editors. Of the millions of registered editors, only tens of thousands contribute the majority of its contents, and a few thousands do quality control and maintenance work. As the encyclopedia expanded in the 2010s, the number of active editors did not grow in tandem. Various sources predicted that Wikipedia will eventually have too few editors to be functional and collapse from lack of participation.[5][14][15][16][17][18][19][excessive citations]
English Wikipedia has 839 volunteer administrators who perform various functions, including functions similar to those carried out by a forum moderator. Critics described their actions as harsh, bureaucratic, biased, unfair, or capricious and predicted that the resulting outrage would lead to the site's closure.[5][20][21]
Various 2012 articles reported that a decline in English Wikipedia's recruitment of new administrators could end Wikipedia.[22][23]
Decline in editors (2014–2015)
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
English Wikipedia editors with >100 edits per month[24]
A 2014 trend analysis published in The Economist stated that "The number of editors for the English-language version has fallen by a third in seven years."[25] The attrition rate for active editors in English Wikipedia was described by The Economist as substantially higher than in other (non-English Wikipedias). It reported that in other languages, the number of "active editors" (those with at least five edits per month) has been relatively constant since 2008: some 42,000 editors, with narrow seasonal variances of about 2,000 editors up or down.
In the English Wikipedia, the number of active editors peaked in 2007 at about 50,000 editors, and fell to 30,000 editors in 2014.[25]
Given that the trend analysis published in The Economist presented the number of active editors for Wikipedia in other languages (non-English Wikipedia) as remaining relatively constant, sustaining their numbers at approximately 42,000 active editors, the contrast pointed to the effectiveness of Wikipedia in those languages to retain their active editors on a renewable and sustained basis.[25] Though different language versions of Wikipedia have different policies, no comment identified a particular policy difference as potentially making a difference in the rate of editor attrition for English Wikipedia.[26] Editor count showed a slight uptick a year later, and no clear trend after that.
In a 2013 article, Tom Simonite of MIT Technology Review said that for several years running, the number of Wikipedia editors had been falling, and cited the bureaucratic structure and rules as a factor. Simonite alleged that some Wikipedians use the labyrinthine rules and guidelines to dominate others and have a vested interest in keeping the status quo.[27] A January 2016 article in Time by Chris Wilson said Wikipedia might lose many editors because a collaboration of occasional editors and smart software will take the lead.[28]
Andrew Lih and Andrew Brown both maintain editing Wikipedia with smartphones is difficult and discourages new potential contributors.[14][17] Lih alleges there is serious disagreement among existing contributors on how to resolve this. In 2015 Lih feared for Wikipedia's long-term future while Brown feared problems with Wikipedia would remain and rival encyclopedias would not replace it.[14][17]
Viewers and funds
As of 2015, there had been a marked decline in persons who viewed Wikipedia from their computers, and according to The Washington Post "[people are] far less likely to donate".[29] At the time, the Wikimedia Foundation reported reserves equivalent to one year's budgeted expenditures. On the other hand, the number of paid staff had ballooned, so those expenses increased.[29]
In 2021, Andreas Kolbe, a former co-editor-in-chief of The Signpost, wrote that the Wikimedia Foundation was reaching its 10-year goal of a US$100 million endowment, five years earlier than planned, which may surprise donors and users around the world who regularly see Wikipedia fundraising banners. He also said accounting methods disguise the size of operating surpluses, top managers earn $300,000 – 400,000 a year, and over 40 people work exclusively on fundraising.[30]
Timeline of predictions
On the eve of the 20th anniversary of Wikipedia, associate professor of the Department of Communication Studies at Northeastern University Joseph Reagle conducted a retrospective study of numerous "predictions of the ends of Wikipedia" over two decades, divided into chronological waves: "Early growth (2001–2002)", "Nascent identity (2001–2005)", "Production model (2005–2010)", "Contributor attrition (2009–2017)" and the current period "(2020)". Each wave brought its distinctive fatal predictions, which never came true; as a result, Reagle concluded Wikipedia was not in danger.[31]
Concern grew in 2023 that the ubiquity and proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) may adversely affect Wikipedia. Rapid improvements and widespread application of AI may render Wikipedia obsolete, or at least reduce its importance.[32] Academic research in 2023 found that AI, when applied to Wikipedia, works most efficiently for error-correction, while Wikipedia still needs to be written by humans.[33]
Gertner, Jon. (2023) "Wikipedia's Moment of Truth: Can the online encyclopedia help teach A.I. chatbots to get their facts right — without destroying itself in the process?" New York Times Magazine (July 18, 2023) online
Reagle, Joseph (15 October 2020). "The Many (Reported) Deaths of Wikipedia". In Jackie, Koerner (ed.). Wikipedia @ 20. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press. p. 9. ISBN9780262538176. Retrieved 4 December 2021.
