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2025 Ecuadorian general election

2025 Ecuadorian general election
← 2023 9 February 2025
Presidential election
Incumbent President

Daniel Noboa
ADN



Politics of Ecuador
Constitution
Executive
Legislative
Judiciary
Elections
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations
  • Ministry of Foreign Affairs
    Minister: José Valencia Amores (list)
flag Ecuador portal

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025.[1] If necessary, a second round will be held on 13 April 2025.[1] Incumbent President Daniel Noboa is running for re-election, having been elected in the 2023 general election.[2] The election will also elect members of the National Assembly to a full four year term.[1]

Background

In 2024, the country faced a military and security conflict when Los Choneros leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar escaped from prison in the city of Guayaquil, on the day of his scheduled transfer to a maximum-security prison. The events were reported the next day by authorities, with charges being filed against two prison guards.[3][4] Following the escape, Noboa declared a state of emergency, to last for 60 days.[5] Riots ensued in multiple prisons across Ecuador following Noboa's decree of military use in prisons.[6] Two days later, mass armed attacks occurred throughout the country, including armed groups storming a television broadcasting station mid-air.[7][8]

In May 2024, Noboa filed to run for re-election with the National Electoral Council under a "special" registration number.[2]

Electoral system

The president is elected using a modified two-round system, with a candidate required to get over 50% of the vote, or get over 40% of the vote and be 10 points ahead of their nearest rival, to be elected in the first round.[9] The president is limited to two consecutive four-year terms.[9][10] However, Noboa is currently serving the remaining term of Guillermo Lasso, whose invoking of muerte cruzada resulted in the calling of the 2023 snap general elections and the early conclusion of his presidency.[11]

Members of the National Assembly are elected by three methods.[10] Fifteen are elected by closed list proportional representation in a nationwide constituency.[12] Six are elected by overseas voters (two each from Canada/United States, Latin America and Asia/Europe/Oceania).[12] The remaining 116 members are elected from multi-member constituencies by closed list proportional representation, with all seats allocated using the Webster method.[12][13] Members of the National Assembly are limited to two four-year terms, regardless if they are consecutive or not.[13] There are gender quotas for the party lists, meaning there is alternation between men and women. There are no quotas for minority representation.[10]

Presidential candidates

Candidates

The following candidates have officially submitted their candidacy through the National Electoral Council:[14][15]

Name Born Experience Home province Campaign Ref

Jorge Escala 		8 January 1970
(age 54)
Ventanas, Los Ríos 		Member of the National Assembly
(2009–2013)
Los Ríos 		Running for:
Popular Unity
Announced:
18 May 2024 		[16]

Andrea González Náder 		1 April 1987
(age 37)
Guayaquil, Guayas 		Environmental activist
2023 vice presidential candidate
Guayas 		Running for:
PSP
Announced:
10 June 2024 		[17]

Luisa González 		22 November 1977
(age 47)
Quito, Pichincha 		Member of the National Assembly
(2021–2023)
Secretary of Public Administration
(2017)
2023 presidential candidate
Manabí 		Nominee of the:
Citizen Revolution
Announced:
29 February 2024
Nominated:
10 August 2024 		[18][19]

Jimmy Jairala 		26 September 1957
(age 67)
Guayaquil, Guayas 		Leader of the Democratic Center
(2012–present)
Prefect of Guayas Province
(2009–2018)
Member of the National Congress
(2007)
Guayas 		Running for:
MCD nomination
Announced:
31 July 2024 		[20][21]

Daniel Noboa 		30 November 1987
(age 37)
Miami, Florida, U.S. 		48th President of Ecuador
(2023–present)
Member of the National Assembly
(2021–2023)
Santa Elena 		Running for:
ADN[a]
Announced:
23 May 2024 		[18][22][2]

Iván Saquicela 		13 March 1975
(age 49)
Cuenca, Azuay 		President of the National Justice Court
(2021-2024)
Azuay 		Running for:
Democracy Yes
Announced:
13 August 2024 		[23]

Francesco Tabacchi

8 June 1971[24]
(age 53)
Guayaquil, Guayas 		Governor of Guayas
(2023)
Guayas 		Running for:
CREO
Announced:
17 August 2024 		[25][26]

Jan Topić 		23 April 1983
(age 41)
Guayaquil, Guayas 		Businessman

2023 presidential candidate

Guayas 		Running for:
SUMA nomination
Announced:
17 August 2024 		[27][28]

Henry Cucalón 		8 June 1973
(age 51)
Guayaquil, Guayas 		Minister of the Government
(2023)
Member of the National Assembly
(2013–2021)
Guayas 		Running for:
MC25 nomination
Announced:
2 July 2024 		[29]

Leonidas Iza 		18 June 1982
(age 42)
Latacunga, Cotopaxi 		President of CONAIE
(2021–present)
Cotopaxi 		Running for:
Pachakutik nomination
Announced:
29 February 2024 		[18]

Henry Kronfle 		1972
(age 52)
Guayaquil, Guayas 		President of the National Assembly
(2023–present)
Member of the National Assembly
(2017–present)
Pichincha 		Running for:
PSC nomination
Announced:
7 August 2024 		[21]

Carlos Rabascall 		3 September 1960
(age 64)
Guayaquil, Guayas 		Businessman
2021 vice presidential candidate
Guayas 		Running for:
ID nomination
Announced:
24 July 2024 		[30]
  1. ^ Alliance is composed of National Democratic Action and Mover

Minor pre-candidates

The following pre-candidates have been also selected in the primaries of the national parties and are eligible for inscription but haven't been notable enough due to lack of coverage or not being present in a national opinion poll:

Withdrawn

Name Born Experience Home province Campaign Ref

José Serrano 		19 November 1970
(age 54)
Cuenca, Azuay 		President of the National Assembly
(2017–2018)
Member of the National Assembly
(2017–2021)
Minister of the Interior
(2011–2016)
Pichincha 		Running for:
MCD nomination
Announced:
31 July 2024
Withdrew:
27 August 2024 		[20][37]

Paola Pabón 		28 January 1978
(age 46)
Ibarra, Imbabura 		Prefect of Pichincha Province
(2019–present)
Member of the National Assembly
(2009–2015)
Pichincha 		Ran for:
RC nomination
Announced:
6 June 2024
Withdrew:
7 August 2024
(endorsed González) 		[38][21]

Declined

The following notable individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy but have publicly denied interest in running or were rejected as pre-candidates and declined to pursue further with their candidacies.

Opinion polling

The following lists opinion polls conducted since the 2023 election. Results for candidates in first place are in bold and have a background of their party colour. Results for candidates who would reach a second round (if the first-placed candidate would not reach 40% with a 10 point lead) are also in bold.

Pre-candidates

Date(s)
administered 		Polling source Sample size Margin
of error 		Daniel Noboa
(ADN) 		Luisa González
(RC) 		Gustavo Jalkh
(RC) 		Pedro Granja
(PSE) 		Leonidas Iza
(MUPP) 		Jan Topić
(SUMA) 		Pedro Freile
(SUMA) 		Henry Kronfle
(PSC) 		Carlos Rabascall
(ID) 		Andrea González
(PSP) 		Victor Araus
(PID) 		Jorge Escala
(UP) 		Henry Cucalón
(MC25) 		José Serrano
(MCD) 		Luis Tillería
(Avanza) 		Bolívar Armijos
(AMIGO) 		Cristina Reyes
(Ind.) 		Diana Salazar
(Ind.) 		Others Nulled Blank Undecided
27 Sep 2024 CID Gallup[53] 1,200 2.8% 31% 26% – – – 15% – 1% – – – – 2% – – – – – 4% 21%
22 Sep 2024 Informe Confidential[54] – – 29% 25% – – 3% 7% – 2% 1% – – – – – – – – – 6% 17% 10%
31 Aug 2024 Maluk Research[55] 4,516 2.5% 31.3% 39.8% – 2.1% 3.2% 6.5% – 1.1% – 1.2% – 1.6% 1.3% 3.2% 3.4% – – – – – – –
24 Aug 2024 Cedatos[56] 3,238 3.1% 48.6% 27.6% – 1.3% 5.3% 7.7% – 1.6% 1,5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% – – – 2,0% – – –
20 Aug 2024 Estrategas Infinity[57] 2,879 2.15% 32.48% 26.08% – 0.69% 3.68% 7.61% – 0.59% 0,76% 1.22% 1.22% 0.87% 0.17% 1.18% 0.52% – – – 0.55% 10.00% 1.95% 10.43%
19 Aug 2024 Negocios y Estrategias[58] – – 37% 41% – 1% 2% 8% – 0% 1% – – – 1% 1% – – – – – 9.9% –
18 Aug 2024 Communicaliza[59] 4,971 1.39% 32.4% 25.4% – 1.2% 2.6% 6.3% – 1.4% 0,8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 2.2% 0.4% – – – 0,9% 9.9% 14.3%
5 Aug 2024 Maluk Research[60] 4,052 2.5% 25.27% 39.67% – 3.86% 4.45% – 2.57% – 1,83% 2.50% – 2.81% 2.95% – 6.48% – – 3.16% 4.44% – – –
22.83% – 26.93% 5.75% 5.83% – 3.70% – 4,41% 3.07% – 2.20% 4.72% – 12.60% – – 3.07% 4.88% 7.03% – –
4 Aug 2024 Communicaliza[61] 4,336 1.49% 33.2% 22.4% – 0.9% 3.7% – 0.5% 1.2% 1,1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8% 2.7% – – – – – 12.6% 16.2%
27 Jul 2024 Communicaliza[62] 4,816 1.41% 31.9% – 15.4% 1.2% 4.2% – 0.4% 1.3% 0,8% 1.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.8% – – – – – 0.4% 12.5% 26.7%
17 Jul 2024 Maluk Research[63] 4,793 2.5% 34.61% 40.11% – 3.90% 4.07% – – 0.48% – 3.10% – 4.65% 1.74% – – – – 1.94% 5.39% – – –
8 Jul 2024 Perfiles de Opinión[64] 621 4.01% 34.08% – 14.66% 1.85% 6.01% – – – – 1.83% – – 1.08% – – – – 1.62% 1.60% 24.61% 12.68% –
4 Jul 2024 Cedatos[65] 3,882 2.4% 35.2% 11.7% – - 3.4% – – 4.0% – 5.9% – – 7.0% – – – – – 2.0% 14.9% 3.6% 12.3%
36.6% – 3.80% - 3.5% – – 4.3% – 5.4% – – 7.6% – – – – – 11.4% 15.1% 4.4% 7.8%
29 Jun 2024 Communicaliza[66] 4,333 1.49% 31.4% 21.7% – 0.9% 3.4% – – 1.5% 0,4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% – – 0.3% – – 0.2% 11.2% 25.3%
32.6% – 17.9% 1.3% 3.4% – – 1.7% 0,9% 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% – 0.6% – 0.4% – – 0.4% 11.9% 26.8%
28 Jun 2024 Maluk Research[67] 4,412 2.5% 32.49% 39.63% – 5.21% 4.89% – – 1.16% – 3.69% – 1.04% – 1.72% – – – 2.73% 7.42% – – –
13 Jun 2024 Maluk Research[68] 4,012 2.5% 32.37% 43.22% – 4.98% 4.85% – – 1.02% – 3.01% – 1.18% 0.92% – – 1.33% – 1.10% 6.03% – – –
30 May 2024 Communicaliza[69] – – 39.8% 21.1% – 1.0% 2.3% – – 2.4% 1.1% – – – – – – 0.5% 0.8% – 0.8% 9.8% 20.5%
14 May 2024 Maluk Research[70] 4,012 2.5% 29.91% 47.75% – 4.60% 1.89% 2.30% – – 2.79% 0.95% – – – – – 0.00% 8.90% 0.37% 0.54% – – –
15 Apr 2024 Maluk Research[71] 3,635 2.5% 30.31% 39.12% – 5.13% 4.20% 3.71% – – 3.69% 1.68% – – – – – 0.26% 8.93% 1.02% 1.96% – – –

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