2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona , concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat , as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections .
The primary was held on August 28.[2] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate , Secretary of State , and Superintendent of Public Instruction , incumbent Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This was the first Arizona gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president .
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Endorsements
Doug Ducey
Arizona Association of Realtors[7]
Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry [8]
Arizona Fraternal Order of Police [9]
Arizona Police Association[10]
Arizona State Troopers Association[11]
The Arizona Republic [12]
Arizona Daily Star [13]
Casa Grande Dispatch [14]
Today's News-Herald (Lake Havasu City, Arizona) [15]
The Daily Courier (Prescott, Arizona) [16]
Chandler Chamber of Commerce[17]
Gilbert Chamber of Commerce[18]
Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce [19]
Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce[20]
Mesa Chamber of Commerce[21]
Tucson Metro Chamber[22]
National Border Patrol Council [23]
National Federation of Independent Business [24]
Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona[25]
Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff[26]
Scott Mascher, Yavapai County Sheriff[26]
Mark Napier, Pima County Sheriff[26]
John Doyle, Nogales Mayor[27]
Gerardo Sanchez, San Luis Mayor[27]
Robert Uribe, Douglas Mayor[27]
Cindy McCain , philanthropist and businesswoman[28]
Mike Pence , 48th Vice President of the United States[29]
Donald Trump , 45th President of the United States[30]
Polling
Results
Results by county:
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[6]
Steve Farley , state senator[34]
Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[35]
Declined
Endorsements
David Garcia
Labor unions
Organizations
Polling
Results
Results by county: 30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Disqualified
Jeff Funicello, activist[52]
Barry Hess (write-in)[6]
Kevin McCormick,[6] candidate for president in 2016 [53] [54]
Endorsements
Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Results
Results by county: 90-100%
80–90%
70–80%
60–70%
Independents
Candidates
Disqualified
Noah Dyer , author, businessman and educator[58] [59]
Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist[60]
Declined
General election
Debates
Predictions
Source
Ranking
As of
The Cook Political Report [62]
Likely R
October 26, 2018
The Washington Post [63]
Likely R
November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [64]
Safe R
November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [65]
Likely R
November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [66]
Likely R
November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [67]
Likely R
November 4, 2018
Daily Kos [68]
Safe R
November 5, 2018
Fox News [69] [a]
Likely R
November 5, 2018
Politico [70]
Likely R
November 5, 2018
Governing [71]
Lean R
November 5, 2018
Notes
^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Doug Ducey (R)
David Garcia (D)
Angel Torres (G)
Other
Undecided
HarrisX
November 3–5, 2018
600
± 4.0%
53%
39%
–
–
–
HarrisX
November 2–4, 2018
600
± 4.0%
55%
37%
–
–
–
Emerson College
November 1–3, 2018
758
± 3.7%
55%
40%
–
–
5%
HarrisX
November 1–3, 2018
600
± 4.0%
57%
36%
–
–
–
Research Co.
November 1–3, 2018
450
± 4.6%
54%
39%
–
2%
5%
HarrisX
October 31 – November 2, 2018
600
± 4.0%
56%
37%
–
–
–
Gravis Marketing
October 24 – November 2, 2018
1,165
± 2.9%
53%
40%
–
–
7%
HarrisX
October 30 – November 1, 2018
600
± 4.0%
57%
36%
–
–
–
HarrisX
October 29–31, 2018
600
± 4.0%
54%
37%
–
–
–
Vox Populi Polling
October 27–30, 2018
677
± 3.7%
54%
46%
–
–
–
HarrisX Archived 2018-11-05 at the Wayback Machine
October 24–30, 2018
1,400
± 2.6%
57%
35%
–
–
–
Fox News
October 27–29, 2018
643 LV
± 3.5%
55%
37%
–
2%
5%
710 RV
± 3.5%
54%
35%
–
3%
7%
CNN/SSRS
October 24–29, 2018
702 LV
± 4.4%
52%
45%
–
0%
1%
867 RV
± 4.0%
52%
43%
–
0%
3%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived 2018-10-30 at the Wayback Machine
October 26–28, 2018
400
± 4.9%
55%
35%
4%
–
7%
Marist College
October 23–27, 2018
506 LV
± 5.4%
54%
40%
5%
<1%
2%
55%
42%
–
1%
1%
793 RV
± 4.4%
54%
38%
5%
<1%
3%
55%
41%
–
1%
3%
YouGov
October 23–26, 2018
972
± 4.1%
52%
41%
–
1%
5%
Ipsos
October 17–26, 2018
799
± 4.0%
57%
37%
–
2%
3%
OH Predictive Insights
October 22–23, 2018
600
± 4.0%
57%
39%
1%
–
3%
Change Research (D-Garcia)
October 9–10, 2018
783
–
47%
40%
–
–
11%
OH Predictive Insights
October 3, 2018
600
± 4.0%
54%
37%
2%
–
7%
Data Orbital Archived 2018-10-05 at the Wayback Machine
October 1–3, 2018
550
± 4.2%
52%
34%
2%
2%
9%
Fox News
September 29 – October 2, 2018
716 LV
± 3.5%
55%
37%
–
1%
7%
806 RV
± 3.5%
54%
35%
–
2%
9%
Vox Populi Polling
September 29 – October 1, 2018
702
± 3.5%
57%
43%
–
–
–
Suffolk University Archived 2018-10-03 at the Wayback Machine
September 27–30, 2018
500
± 4.4%
50%
38%
2%
0%
10%
Latino Decisions
September 10–25, 2018
463 LV
–
45%
40%
–
–
15%
610 RV
–
41%
37%
–
–
19%
Emerson College
September 19–21, 2018
650
± 4.4%
42%
38%
–
6%
14%
Marist College
September 16–20, 2018
564 LV
± 4.7%
49%
39%
6%
<1%
6%
51%
43%
–
<1%
5%
763 RV
± 4.2%
48%
37%
7%
<1%
7%
51%
42%
–
1%
6%
CNN/SSRS
September 11–15, 2018
761 LV
± 4.3%
49%
46%
–
0%
2%
854 RV
± 4.1%
48%
45%
–
1%
4%
Ipsos Archived 2018-09-20 at the Wayback Machine
September 5–14, 2018
1,016
± 4.0%
51%
39%
–
4%
7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) Archived 2018-09-19 at the Wayback Machine
September 8–13, 2018
800
± 4.0%
49%
48%
–
0%
3%
Fox News
September 8–11, 2018
710 LV
± 3.5%
51%
40%
–
1%
8%
801 RV
± 3.5%
49%
39%
–
1%
10%
Gravis Marketing
September 5–7, 2018
882
± 3.3%
48%
44%
–
–
9%
Data Orbital Archived 2018-09-11 at the Wayback Machine
September 4–6, 2018
550
± 4.2%
49%
41%
–
2%[72]
8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)
August 30–31, 2018
554
± 4.2%
44%
43%
–
–
13%
Gravis Marketing
June 27 – July 2, 2018
925
± 3.2%
41%
42%
–
–
17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)
January 5–7, 2018
735
± 4.0%
42%
43%
–
–
15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)
June 7–8, 2017
1,020
± 3.1%
42%
44%
–
–
14%
Hypothetical polling
with Steve Farley
with generic Democrat
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Doug Ducey (R)
Generic Democrat
Undecided
Morning Consult Archived 2018-07-16 at the Wayback Machine
June 29 – July 9, 2018
1,641
± 2.0%
34%
41%
25%
with Kyrsten Sinema
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Doug Ducey (R)
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
May 13–15, 2016
896
± 3.3%
43%
36%
21%
Results
Swing by county Democratic—+5-10%
Democratic—+<5%
Republican—+<5%
Republican—+5-10%
Republican—+10-15%
Republican—+15-20%
Republican—+20-25%
Results by county
County
David GarciaDemocratic
Doug DuceyRepublican
Angel TorresGreen
Margin
Total
votes
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Apache
14,955
59.72%
9,175
36.64%
912
3.64%
5,780
23.08%
25,042
Cochise
14,576
32.10%
29,638
65.26%
1,201
2.64%
-15,062
-33.17%
45,415
Coconino
30,712
55.91%
22,778
41.47%
1,440
2.62%
7,934
14.44%
54,930
Gila
5,623
27.38%
14,444
70.34%
468
2.28%
-8,821
-42.96%
20,535
Graham
2,569
24.19%
7,776
73.21%
276
2.60%
-5,207
-49.03%
10,621
Greenlee
832
32.64%
1,637
64.22%
80
3.14%
-805
-31.58%
2,549
La Paz
1,122
21.99%
3,852
75.49%
129
2.53%
-2,730
-53.50%
5,103
Maricopa
603,055
42.09%
800,210
55.85%
29,495
2.06%
-197,155
-13.76%
1,432,760
Mohave
13,580
18.97%
56,682
79.18%
1,325
1.85%
-43,102
-60.21%
71,587
Navajo
13,646
37.30%
21,880
59.81%
1,055
2.88%
-8,234
-22.51%
36,581
Pima
195,227
50.25%
184,621
47.52%
8,678
2.23%
10,606
2.73%
388,526
Pinal
38,801
33.21%
75,272
64.42%
2,767
2.37%
-36,471
-31.21%
116,840
Santa Cruz
8,407
62.46%
4,792
35.60%
261
1.94%
3,615
26.86%
13,460
Yavapai
32,159
29.68%
74,148
68.44%
2,029
1.87%
-41,989
-38.76%
108,336
Yuma
19,077
43.47%
23,958
54.60%
846
1.93%
-4,881
-11.12%%
43,881
Total
994,341
41.8%
1,330,863
56.0%
50,962
2.1%
336,522
14.2%
2,376,166
Results by congressional district
Ducey won 6 of the 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[74]
Voter Demographics
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup
Garcia
Ducey
No Answer
% of Voters
Gender
Men
40
58
2
47
Women
43
55
2
53
Age
18–24 years old
N/A
N/A
N/A
5
25–29 years old
N/A
N/A
N/A
4
30–39 years old
45
52
3
17
40–49 years old
43
55
2
16
50–64 years old
37
61
2
29
65 and older
40
59
1
29
Race
White
37
62
1
75
Black
N/A
N/A
N/A
2
Latino
56
44
N/A
19
Asian
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
Other
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
Race and Gender
White men
34
64
2
34
White women
39
60
1
41
Black men
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
Black women
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
Latino men
53
46
1
9
Latina women
58
42
N/A
10
Others
N/A
N/A
N/A
4
Education
High school or less
32
67
1
25
Some college education
40
58
2
28
Associate Degree
38
59
3
10
Bachelor's Degree
46
51
3
23
Advanced degree
59
40
1
14
Education and race
White college graduates
48
49
3
27
White no college degree
30
69
1
38
Non-white college graduates
51
47
2
9
Non-white no college degree
61
38
1
16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees
50
49
1
15
White women without college degrees
33
66
1
26
White men with college degrees
46
49
5
12
White men without college degrees
28
72
N/A
21
Non-whites
58
40
2
25
Military service
Veteran
33
65
2
14
Non-veteran
45
54
1
86
Income
Under $30,000
36
62
2
15
$30,000-$49,999
54
45
1
19
$50,000-$99,999
46
52
2
33
$100,000-$199,999
31
67
2
24
Over $200,000
28
72
N/A
9
Party ID
Democrats
85
14
1
31
Republicans
5
95
N/A
38
Independents
45
52
3
31
Party by gender
Democratic men
77
20
3
14
Democratic women
91
9
N/A
17
Republican men
5
95
N/A
15
Republican women
4
96
N/A
23
Independent men
42
56
2
18
Independent women
48
47
5
13
Ideology
Liberals
83
16
1
22
Moderates
57
41
2
38
Conservatives
4
95
1
40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes
51
45
4
15
No
41
58
1
85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care
64
33
3
42
Immigration
8
91
1
31
Economy
38
60
2
18
Gun policy
N/A
N/A
N/A
7
Area type
Urban
52
46
2
43
Suburban
34
64
2
51
Rural
N/A
N/A
N/A
5
Source: CNN [75]
References
^ "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State" . Retrieved May 7, 2023 .
^ Legislatures, National Conference of State. "2018 State Primary Election Dates" . www.ncsl.org . Retrieved May 22, 2018 .
^ "Ducey 2018" . www.ducey2018.com . Archived from the original on August 6, 2018. Retrieved February 9, 2018 .
^ Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media (April 21, 2018). "Former Secretary of State Ken Bennett to challenge Gov. Doug Ducey in primary" . Arizona Daily Star . Retrieved May 7, 2023 .
^ Services, Howard Fischer, Capitol Media (April 22, 2018). "Ducey draws primary challenge from Bennett | Arizona Capitol Times" . Retrieved May 7, 2023 . {{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link )
^ a b c d e f "Arizona Election Information" . apps.azsos.gov .[permanent dead link ]
^ "Arizona Realtors® Announces 2018 Primary Election Endorsements" . blog.aaronline.com . June 18, 2018.
^ "Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry announces 2018 statewide office endorsements" . azchamber.com . June 27, 2018. Archived from the original on September 11, 2018. Retrieved September 10, 2018 .
^ "Arizona Fraternal Order of Police Endorses Doug Ducey" . Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona . August 21, 2018.[permanent dead link ]
^ "Arizona Police Association Endorses Doug Ducey" . Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona . August 20, 2018.[permanent dead link ]
^ "Arizona State Troopers Association Endorses Doug Ducey" . Doug Ducey for Governor . September 25, 2018. Archived from the original on November 1, 2018. Retrieved November 1, 2018 .
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^ "Editorial: Courier offers picks in partisan races, ballot questions" . The Daily Courier . October 20, 2018.
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^ Skabelund, Adrian. "Garcia visits Flagstaff as chamber chooses Ducey for governor" . Arizona Daily Sun . Retrieved November 1, 2018 .
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^ "Tucson Metro Chamber Endorses Governor Ducey" . Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona . October 5, 2018.[permanent dead link ]
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^ "Arizona Firefighters Endorse Doug Ducey" . Doug Ducey for Governor . October 16, 2018. Archived from the original on November 1, 2018. Retrieved November 1, 2018 .
^ a b c "Arizona Sheriffs Endorse Governor Ducey" . Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona . October 4, 2018. Archived from the original on November 16, 2018. Retrieved October 12, 2018 .
^ a b c "Doug Ducey Earns Bipartisan Support From Border Mayors" . Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona . September 18, 2018. Archived from the original on September 11, 2018. Retrieved September 10, 2018 .
^ Maria Polletta (September 26, 2018). "Cindy McCain endorses Doug Ducey in governor's race" . The Arizona Republic .
^ Mike Pence. "Congratulations to @DougDucey on his primary victory tonight in Arizona. We need strong governors like Doug across this nation to help enact the @RealDonaldTrump agenda that has our economy BOOMING! We're with you all the way!" . Twitter .
^ Donald J. Trump. "Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona is doing a great job. It would be really nice to show your support tomorrow by voting for him in Tuesdays Primary. Doug is strong on Crime, the Border, and our Second Amendment. Loves our Military & our Vets. He has my full and complete Endorsement" . Twitter .
^ a b "Statewide canvass" (PDF) . azsos.gov .
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^ Barry Hess (L) with 2%
^ "Statewide canvass" (PDF) . azsos.gov .
^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts" . Daily Kos . Retrieved August 11, 2020 .
^ "Arizona Gubernatorial Election exit poll" . CNN. Retrieved March 29, 2019 .
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