2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
County resultsCotton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%Pryor: 50–60% 60–70%
The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas , concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas , as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections .
Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 56.5%-39.4%.[1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.[2] This marked the first time since Reconstruction in 1877 that Republicans held both Senate seats in Arkansas, and the Arkansas congressional delegation was entirely Republican. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln , also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, with Pryor receiving a similar fate.
Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut 's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri ’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress .
Background
Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002 , defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson . He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy , who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were re-elected.[4]
Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[6]
The election was originally thought to be extremely close- a claim backed up by polling, but Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points.[7]
Democratic primary
Pryor was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Candidates
Declared
Declined
Republican primary
Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.
Candidates
Declared
Declined
Third parties
Candidates
Declared
Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian ), energy executive[15]
Mark Swaney (Green ), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010[15]
General election
Endorsements
Fundraising
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on Hand
Mark Pryor (D)
$10,428,246
$12,034,784
$364,653
Tom Cotton (R)
$7,557,443
$6,411,763
$1,885,435
Debates
Predictions
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Mark Pryor (D)
Tom Cotton (R)
Other
Undecided
Basswood Research
March 16–17, 2013
600
± 4%
35%
43%
—
22%
Basswood Research
June 22–23, 2013
600
± 4%
41%
40%
—
19%
Clark Research
July 23–27, 2013
729
± 4%
43%
35%
—
21%
On Message Inc.
July 29–30, 2013
600
± 4%
42%
44%
—
14%
Harper Polling
August 4–5, 2013
587
± 4.04%
41%
43%
—
16%
Global Strategy Group
August 26–29, 2013
501
± ?%
47%
40%
—
13%
Harper Polling
September 24–26, 2013
622
± 3.93%
45%
42%
—
13%
Talk Business/Hendrix College
October 8, 2013
603
± 4%
42%
41%
—
17%
Public Policy Polling
October 14–15, 2013
955
± 3.2%
44%
41%
—
15%
University of Arkansas
October 10–17, 2013
800
± 3.5%
34%
32%
—
34%
Impact Management Group
October 24, 2013
911
± 3.2%
41%
42%
—
18%
Polling Company/WomanTrend
December 6–7, 2013
400
± 4.9%
41%
48%
—
9%
Public Policy Polling
December 13–15, 2013
1,004
± 3.1%
44%
44%
—
12%
Rasmussen Reports
February 4–5, 2014
500
± 4.5%
40%
45%
5%
10%
Harper Polling
January 26–27, 2014
533
± 4.24%
36%
42%
—
22%
Impact Management Group
February 10, 2014
1,202
± 2.83%
42%
46%
—
13%
Hickman Analytics
February 17–20, 2014
400
± 4.9%
39%
41%
8%
12%
42%
51%
—
8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
March 27 – April 2, 2014
600
± 4%
48%
45%
—
7%
Talk Business/Hendrix College
April 3–4, 2014
1,068
± 3%
46%
43%
4%[26]
8%
Opinion Research Associates
April 1–8, 2014
400
± 5%
48%
38%
—
8%
Harper Polling
April 9–10, 2014
522
± 4.29%
39%
39%
—
22%
New York Times/Kaiser Family
April 8–15, 2014
857
± 4%
46%
36%
4%
15%
Magellan Strategies
April 14–15, 2014
857
± 3.35%
43%
46%
4%
7%
Public Policy Polling
April 25–27, 2014
840
± 3.4%
43%
42%
—
16%
NBC News/Marist
April 30 – May 4, 2014
876
± 3.3%
51%
40%
1%
3%
Rasmussen Reports
May 27–28, 2014
750
± 4%
43%
47%
4%
6%
Public Opinion Strategies
May 27–29, 2014
500
± 4.39%
41%
46%
—
13%
Fabrizio Lee
June 3–5, 2014
600
± 4%
43%
51%
—
5%
Magellan Strategies
June 4–5, 2014
755
± 3.57%
45%
49%
2%
4%
Impact Management Group
June 29, 2014
1290
± 2.72%
43%
47%
—
10%
Gravis Marketing
July 7–8, 2014
987
± 3%
44%
51%
5%[27]
—
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
July 5–24, 2014
1,628
± 2.9%
45%
49%
1%
5%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
July 20–24, 2014
600
± 4%
48%
46%
—
6%
Talk Business/Hendrix College
July 22–25, 2014
1,780
± 2.3%
42%
44%
7%[28]
7%
Public Policy Polling
August 1–3, 2014
1,066
± 3%
39%
41%
7%[28]
14%
41%
43%
—
16%
Opinion Research Associates
August 6–14, 2014
414
± 4.9%
46%
41%
4%[26]
9%
Rasmussen Reports
August 25–26, 2014
750
± 4%
44%
43%
6%
6%
ccAdvertising
August 31 – September 1, 2014
1,735
± ?
29%
37%
—
34%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
August 18 – September 2, 2014
1,572
± 3%
39%
43%
2%
16%
CNN/ORC International
August 28 – September 2, 2014
523 LV
± 4.5%
47%
49%
—
4%
839 RV
± 3.5%
47%
38%
—
14%
Hickman Analytics
August 26 – September 3, 2014
700
± 3.7%
45%
43%
—
12%
NBC News/Marist
September 2–4, 2014
639 LV
± 3.9%
40%
45%
6%[29]
9%
1,068 RV
± 3%
41%
41%
8%[30]
11%
Answers Unlimited
September 7–9, 2014
600
± 3.5%
46%
42%
4%[26]
8%
Gravis Marketing
September 8–11, 2014
902
± 4%
43%
47%
2%[27]
8%
Hickman Analytics
September 13–18, 2014
801
± 3.5%
46%
43%
—
11%
Public Policy Polling
September 18–21, 2014
1,453
± 2.6%
38%
43%
6%[31]
13%
39%
45%
—
15%
Suffolk
September 20–23, 2014
500
± 4.4%
45%
43%
5%[31]
7%
Rasmussen Reports
September 24–25, 2014
750
± 4%
40%
47%
5%
8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
September 20 – October 1, 2014
1,991
± 2%
41%
45%
1%
13%
Opinion Research Associates
October 1–5, 2014
400
± 5%
45%
42%
5%
9%
Fox News
October 4–7, 2014
707
± 3.5%
39%
46%
5%[32]
11%
Rasmussen Reports
October 13–15, 2014
940
± 3%
44%
47%
4%
5%
Talk Business/Hendrix
October 15–16, 2014
2,075
± 2.2%
40.5%
49%
5%[33]
6%
NBC News/Marist
October 19–23, 2014
621
± 3.9%
43%
45%
6%[29]
7%
971
± 3.1%
43%
42%
6%[29]
9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
October 16–23, 2014
1,567
± 4%
42%
47%
1%
10%
Opinion Research Associates
October 25–26, 2014
401
± 5%
45%
44%
2%[34]
10%
Issues & Answers Network
October 21–27, 2014
568
± 4.1%
36%
49%
—
15%
Rasmussen Reports
October 27–29, 2014
967
± 3%
44%
51%
4%
2%
Public Policy Polling
October 30 – November 1, 2014
1,092
± 3%
41%
49%
4%[35]
5%
45%
51%
—
4%
Opinion Research Associates
October 30 – November 1, 2014
400
± 5%
45%
43%
4%[35]
8%
Results
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
See also
References
^ "November 4, 2014 Arkansas General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election OFFICIAL RESULTS" . November 4, 2014. Retrieved September 8, 2022 .
^ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas" . POLITICO .
^ "Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America's #1 Source for Green Party News & Views" . Green Party Watch. November 7, 2008. Retrieved September 4, 2010 .
^ Ostermeier, Eric (August 5, 2013). "Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014" . Smart Politics .
^ Ostermeier, Eric (March 20, 2013). "Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats?" . Smart Politics .
^ Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?" . Smart Politics .
^ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas" . POLITICO . Retrieved January 14, 2021 .
^ "Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014" . Arkansas Times. April 19, 2012.
^ "D.C. GOP can't get a pulse on Arkansas" . Natural State Report. July 31, 2013. Archived from the original on August 1, 2013.
^ Glueck, Katie (July 31, 2013). "Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate" . Politico .
^ Daniels, Alex; Frago, Charlie (November 12, 2012). "Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in '14" . Arkansas Online.
^ DeMillo, Andrew (August 13, 2013). "Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat" . Arkansas Business . Associated Press.
^ "Griffin Wins Seat on Ways and Means Committee, Will Not Seek Higher Office in 2014" . talkbusiness.net . Archived from the original on December 3, 2012.
^ a b c Saylor, Ryan (August 7, 2013). "Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape" . Talk Business Arkansas . Retrieved August 13, 2013 .
^ a b "Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas" . sfgate.com . March 3, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014 .
^ Trygstad, Kyle. "Club for Growth Backs Mark Pryor Challenger" . Roll Call . Retrieved August 7, 2013 .
^ Leary, Alex. "Rubio endorses Tom Cotton in Arkansas Senate race" . Tampa Bay Times . Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013 .
^ Kubin, Jacquie. "Allen West Guardian Fund 2014: Endorsing tomorrow's leaders" . The Washington Times . Retrieved September 19, 2013 .
^ "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races" . Patriot Voices . April 22, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2014 .
^ "Political Note: Romney Endorses Cotton" . Time Record Online Edition . June 13, 2014. Retrieved July 31, 2014 .
^ Brantley, Max (April 25, 2014). "UPDATE: Arkansas Education Association to endorse Mark Pryor. And, boy, did he go after Cotton today on Medicare, Social Security" . Arkansas Times . Retrieved July 31, 2014 .
^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014" . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved September 20, 2018 .
^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks" . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved September 20, 2018 .
^ "2014 Senate Ratings" . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018 .
^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014" . Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018 .
^ a b c Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L)
^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
^ a b c Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
^ a b Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
^ "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results" . Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2014 .
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